This weekend, millions will be watching as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off with the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. These teams have played once already this season, with the Chiefs fending off a late Buccaneers comeback (27-24 Chiefs). Going into this game, Vegas favors the Chiefs by three points, with the over-under being 56 points.  

How the Chiefs Win: 

The GamePlan for Kansas City is obvious to anyone who has watched their season. The entire team will ride or die on the arm of Patrick Mahomes and the genius of Andy Reid. This might seem like a one-dimensional idea, maybe even flawed. But if it was so easy to stop, then the Chiefs would not have the most effective offense in the league. (418.8 YPG) Andy Reid does a fantastic job of keeping defenses guessing. Even though everything flows through Patrick Mahomes, the Chief’s offense is so talented and dynamic that the ball could be going anywhere or to anyone. Just when a team thinks they have the Chief’s offense figured out, the Chiefs will change up their strategy and torch the secondary.  

The most threatening thing to an easy victory is the Buccaneers pass rush defense. The Buccaneers tied for 4th in sacks this year (48), and the Chiefs have allowed the 5th most sacks per game (1.4) this season.  

The counter to this, of course, is Patrick Mahomes. When teams are blitzing Mahomes (by sending 5 or more pass rushers), Mahomes has a better Passer Rating* (116.5) than when he is against a non-blitzing offense (4 or fewer pass rushers) (109.0). 

*Passer Rating is a number assigned to a QB, that attempts to quantify that QB’s success. Factors include: Pass attempts, Pass completions, Passing Yards, Touchdowns, and Interceptions. Passer rating exists on a scale from 0-158.3 

How the Buccaneers Win: 

On the surface level, the Buccaneers have the same plan as the Chiefs. Lean on their QB and spread the ball around to all of the receivers. While the Chiefs have a faster receiving core, the Bucs have better catching ability. These two offenses might look completely different, but they place within three ranks of each other in almost every major category. This includes Yards per game, time of possession, points per game, and explosive pass plays* per game. Statistically, the Buccaneers and the Chiefs have almost the same offense.  

*Explosive Pass Plays are defined as: A single passing attempt that results in the gain of 20 or more yards. 

Therefore, if the Buccaneers want to take home the Lombardi trophy, they need to stand out on defense. Pass defense is yet another stat that the Bucs and Chiefs are within three ranks of each other in. However, when these two teams played in November, the Bucs were the only team in the league that held the Chiefs to only one Touchdown in a half. That not seem impressive, but it is important to consider that the Chiefs averaged a little over 15 points per half in the 2020 regular season when Patrick Mahomes starts. If the Buccaneers’ defense can play with the same strength, they did in the second half of their earlier game against Kansas City, the Buccaneers certainly have a chance of winning the Super Bowl.  

My prediction: 

I think that the Buccaneers will pull the upset win. Yes, they are underdogs. But Tom Brady has been the underdog* in the Super Bowl three times in his career. He is 3-0 in those situations. The Buccaneers have proven that they can jam up the gears of the Chiefs offense- and Tom Brady has proven that he is still able to go blow for blow with any QB. I believe that this will be a mildly high scoring game, but with about 2 key defensive plays. Whoever gets those plays will win the game.  

31-26 Buccaneers (over)

Bonus Segment: 

While discussing this article in class, one of my teachers decided to predict the score of the Super Bowl too. Mr.Mcleod believes that the score will be 34-27, with Kansas City coming out on top. Mr.Mcleod is skeptical about Tom Brady’s ability to beat the Chief’s defense, especially their safeties.