As the tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to rise, war seems inevitable. As I am writing this in the evening of February 20th, 2022, it seems that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine, they have been for a few weeks. An invasion is not 100% certain but the odds are very likely at this point. During these times of conflict, it can be hard to follow what is happening since there will be a lot of conflicting stories and headlines that will either lie or extremely exaggerate to get clicks. Hopefully this will provide some information to help you understand what is going on. 

To start, does Russia even want to invade Ukraine? Given everything it is almost certain Putin wants to invade Ukraine. Russia has amassed over 150,000 troops on the border of Ukraine and has been running military and nuclear drills. It would be detrimental to Russia to not invade at the point they have gotten to. If they weren’t planning on invading Ukraine, Russia is wasting a lot of resources moving troops to the border with plenty of military gear and vehicles. Also, using historical context, in 2014, Russia had invaded and annexed Crimea, a peninsula previously part of Ukraine and geographically attached to Ukraine. Following 2014 and even before the annexation of Crimea Russia has been funding Pro-Russian separatist groups within Ukraine essentially; placing Ukraine in a constant civil war destabilizing the region. Convenient for Russia, isn’t it? 

Vox video on Putin and more history on Russia:

Now that is established Russia does in fact want to invade Ukraine, why do they even want Ukraine? There are multiple answers as to why they want Ukraine, but the major reason is that it’s a power play by Russia. Putin has previously stated he wants Russia to be a global superpower just like the former Soviet Union. Russia, likely being able to take over and annex major parts of Ukraine, will be able to posture their enormous power. Also, this posturing would likely prevent those countries near Russia, i.e., ex-Soviet Union countries, from working with Western alliances like the European Union and NATO. 

That takes me to the next reason Russia wants to invade Ukraine and that’s to prevent Western influence. With powers such as NATO and the European Union having influence close to these ex-Soviet Union countries is seen as dangerous to Russia. Overall, the general attitude from “The West” is a negative one towards Russia so it would make sense Russia would want to decrease their influence on other countries. It is also generally said that “Western values” promote democracy and freedom both ideas Russia does not like. 

Now to what everyone wants to know, will America get involved or are they already involved? Yes and no. America has and will continue to send weapons and other military gear to Ukraine along with NATO. However, America will not directly send troops or bomb parts of Russia. This is great news for men 18-25 (or women who have signed up for selective services) because this means no draft! 

“We also will not send troops in to fight in Ukraine, but we will continue to support the Ukrainian people.” – President Biden

If Russia were to invade Ukraine America would increase giving Ukraine arms and place harsh sanctions on Russia. America’s strategy is to be indirectly involved and if Russia were to invade, they would suffocate their economy until its collapses in on itself, A strategy other countries are also using. 

The Ukrainian Crisis is worrying but I wouldn’t lose sleep over it unless you will be directly involved in the Russian invasion. There will not be a nuclear war since Ukraine doesn’t have any nuclear weapons (given up by Ukraine as a set of demands from Russia) and America isn’t getting directly involved. It seems very very very unlikely this conflict will result in a nuclear war. But the posturing attitude Russia has is worrying. Almost every western country and group has increased communication with Russia for diplomatic measures and threatened to send more arms to Ukraine and/or impose sanctions but Russia doesn’t seem to be deescalating the situation, in fact it seems to be the opposite. Also, this conflict could directly affect different markets like oil and electricity since many countries including America have said they will impose sanctions on the Russian economy if they were to invade.  

Others might wonder who they should trust for information? I would say it is good to trust sources like NATO, The European Union, and Countries such as America and the United Kingdom since they are given information the general public does not have access to and will be more careful when releasing information. Generally, it is also fine to trust big news publications for information since many of these publications have teams to fact check and review anything they publish. You should however be weary of smaller news outlets and small, even large, social media accounts. 

There is one source no one should trust during this conflict, however. That source would be Russia and Russian backed separatists. It is in Russia’s interest to spread misinformation and to frame Ukraine in negative light. Russia is going to continue to frame Ukraine for attacking areas that Russian Separatist occupy. That disinformation will be used to justify an invasion by Russia if it were to happen. Russia has already started calling out attacks that they say came from Ukraine but, Russia has been responsible for over 100 ceasefire violations in one day. The bottom line is to never trust anything Russia says. 

To wrap it up, I urge people to take the media they see about Russia and Ukraine with a grain of salt, especially those words from Russia as, again, it is in Russia’s best interest to spread misinformation that could justify their possible invasion of Ukraine. Also, getting new, reliable information is going to be difficult and things can and will change. It can be hard to determine if the information you find is credible or not which is why you will, most likely, must wait for multiple fact checkers or reliable news outlets to report on the matter. Hopefully Russia doesn’t invade but at this point it seems Russia will likely invade. Feel free to ask any questions, I will be more than happy to answer :).